China youth unemployment rises; Q2 economic report below expectations.

Posted on 18 July, 2023 by safetotosite pro

China's economy has been recovering since the transition to Weed Corona earlier this year, but it's been slow.

Today, China's National Bureau of Statistics released its second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and other economic indicators. Compared to the second quarter of last year, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.3% in the second quarter of this year.

That's a pretty high number. It's even better than the 4.5% economic growth in the first quarter, but it's still well below market expectations.

In fact, in the second quarter of last year, China's economic growth was 0.4%. Shanghai, the country's "economic capital," was under lockdown for over two months, and other cities were similarly affected.

This led to expectations that the base effect would result in growth in the high 7 percent range for this year's second quarter. In fact, Bloomberg and others reported that, based on their own survey of economists, the consensus forecast for China's second-quarter growth was 7.1 percent. But that expectation was dashed.

The domestic demand recovery that China has been pinning its hopes on is also looking sluggish.

In June, retail sales rose 3.1% from the same period last year, just shy of the 3.2% forecast. Retail sales in China are a gauge of domestic demand, representing changes in consumer spending at various types of stores, including department stores and convenience stores.

Considering that retail sales growth was 12.7% and double-digit in the first quarter, consumer spending is not recovering as quickly as expected. Experts attribute this to the waning of the so-called retaliatory consumer spending effect.

Exports have also been sluggish: China's exports plunged 12.4% in June compared to the same period last year.

Most striking is the youth unemployment rate, which hit another record high.

In June, the unemployment rate for youth aged 16 to 24 hit 21.3%, up another 0.5 percentage points from the previous record high of 20.8% in May.

China's youth unemployment rate continued to climb from 16.7% in December of last year, soaring to 20.4% in April of this year - the first time it had ever exceeded 20% - but it hit another record high in June.

Many experts are betting that there will be a flood of new college graduates in July and August, especially since Chinese universities hold graduation ceremonies in June on average. As they enter the job market, the pessimistic view is that China's youth unemployment rate will rise further.

"Consumption, investment, and exports recover slower than market expectations"

According to the economic indicators released by China in the second quarter of this year, the Chinese economy has been recovering since the beginning of the year, but consumption has slowed down and exports have not recovered as much as expected.

An official from the Korean Embassy in China said, "China's economic growth rate in the second quarter is still higher than that of other countries," but explained that "consumption, investment, and exports," which drive economic growth, are still below market expectations.

In addition, the KDB China Research Center in South Korea analyzed that "the upward momentum of economic growth is slowing down due to a sudden drop in the real estate market in the second quarter and sluggish exports."

The question is how this will affect the global economy. "China is a major importer for many countries around the world," U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a press conference before the G20 finance ministers' meeting yesterday (Nov. 16), adding that in such a situation, "a slowdown in China's economy could affect growth rates in many countries, and we've all seen this happen."

So, will China stimulate? With Chinese economic publication Caixin and others predicting that Chinese authorities will step in to boost the economy in the third quarter, 먹튀검증 there is speculation that additional stimulus measures will be discussed at the Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China Central Committee later this month.